What’s Next for Evaluation? Insights from the CECAN Conference 2025

The CECAN Conference 2025, held on 30th June 2025, brought together nearly 200 policymakers, evaluators, and academics under the theme “New Government, New Approach to Evaluation?” to explore the future of evaluation in an era of increasing complexity and political change. The day featured a diverse lineup of speakers who addressed critical gaps and systemic challenges in evaluation practices.

The conference heard from Lucie Moore, Head of the UK Government’s joint Cabinet Office and HM Treasury Evaluation Task Force, on strengthening evaluation in government. Tim Sunderland, a Principal Specialist from the Natural England Chief Scientist’s Directorate, discussed the “Evaluation/Appraisal Gap.” Andrew Jarvis, Vice-President at global consultancy ICF, then offered a provider’s perspective on “Evaluating in Interesting Times.” Pedro Wrobel, Chief Executive of Guildford and Waverley Borough Councils, brought a crucial “local lens” to the discussion, emphasising the need for evaluation to be grounded in place, people, and purpose. The day concluded with a summary and closing remarks from Professor Nigel Gilbert, Director of CECAN.

• Start appraisal from evaluation: Use past evaluations to inform guidance (e.g., the Green Book)
• Strengthen logical frameworks: Better align appraisal with theories of change
• Embrace Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA): For large-scale projects (e.g., nature recovery), CEA may better capture value than traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)

2. Embracing complexity and systems thinking

The conference emphasised the need for a shift from siloed thinking to systemic approaches:

• Simplified systems maps: The focus should be on key decisions rather than exhaustive, overwhelming detail
• Local insights matter: Proximity changes perspective – what works in one locality may fail elsewhere
• Dynamic evaluations: Evaluations need to adapt as programs evolve, creating continuous feedback loops for relevance

3. Value for money in a resource-scarce world

In a world of tighter budgets, demonstrating Value for Money (VfM) is critical. However, it’s increasingly clear that traditional methods often fall short.

• Avoid “spurious accuracy”: We must be wary of over-relying on quantitative metrics when qualitative insights are needed
• Rigor cannot be sacrificed: Cutting evaluation budgets is a “false economy,” as robust analysis is non-negotiable for effective policymaking
• Scale solutions: We should embrace reusable evaluation templates to prevent “reinventing the wheel”

• Automate tasks (e.g., thematic analysis, data extraction from PDFs)
• Reduce costs while improving efficiency

However, a note of caution was raised about ethical risks, the lack of guidance for evaluating AI interventions, and the need for skills development.

5. Systemic collaboration for better outcomes

Collaboration is essential to achieve better outcomes:

• A joint “Evaluation & Appraisal Profession” could merge disciplines to bridge cultural divides
• Empowering local government requires a “reset” in central-local relations, trusting localities to lead rather than just deliver
• We should leverage What Works Centres as hubs to consolidate evaluation learning for broader use

Challenges ahead

Despite progress, persistent hurdles remain:

• Bureaucratization: Theory of change risks becoming a tick-box exercise
• Speed vs. rigour: Policymakers need rapid answers, but robust evaluation takes time
• Cultural resistance: Differing worldviews between economists and social scientists hinder collaboration

• The UK’s six outcome-focused government missions could align efforts across sectors
• Technology and collaboration offer tangible ways to improve evaluation efficiency and impact
• Local empowerment and systemic thinking are key to addressing complexity

For those who missed the conference, you can catch up on the recordings in the ‘Videos‘ section of our website.

This post was drafted with support from AI tools for clarity and structure.