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Likelihoods

Blog by Stuart Astill IOD Parc

By Stuart Astill, Principal Consultant, IOD PARC

Likelihoods

The scope of the CECAN project runs wide as well as deep; complexity in the energy, water, environment and food domain would most immediately be thought to arise from the physical systems at the nexus core. Yes, complexity in weather systems, biological populations spring quickly and easily to mind as do the ‘user level’ human interactions with these systems and other local and global physical systems. However, when we are addressing remedial interventions, or even ongoing management of nexus concerns, we quickly realise a double dose of complexity if, as we certainly should, we look towards governance.

Is Policy Evaluation Fit For Purpose?

cecan eevent

By Roger Highfield, Director of External Affairs of the Science Museum, member of the Royal Society’s Science Policy Advisory Group.
 
To tackle climate change, ecosystem destruction and the many daunting issues facing humanity we need not only to draw on science and engineering but also develop policies that can change the behaviour of 7.5 billion people.
 
That means we need ways to evaluate which policies work and which don’t, and figure out how to hone them. However, there is still some way to go to make our existing institutional machinery fit for purpose, according to a far-ranging discussion on Policy Evaluation for a Complex World I chaired this month, at St Martin’s in the Fields, Trafalgar Square, London, for the Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN).

After the Brexit vote: What Next for the UK’s Environment?

After the Brexit Vote

This post is by Andy Jordan, Charlotte Burns and Viviane Gravey.  They recently co-led an expert reviewof the environmental implications of Brexit funded by the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative.

After a deeply divisive campaign, UK voters have opted by a small majority to leave the European Union.  Environmentalists are accustomed to most policy being made jointly with the EU. The shock result flips that assumption completely on its head. The referendum process may be over, but the hard political debate over policy starts now.

How Should Academics Interact with Policy Makers? Lessons on Building a Long-term Advocacy Strategy.

how should academics interact

What can academics learn from how civil society organisations and NGOs approach policy impact? Julia Himmrich argues that academics have a lot to gain from embracing the practices of long-term advocacy. Advocacy is about establishing relationships and creating a community of experts both in and outside of government who can give informed input on policies. Being more aware of the political aspects of research can help academics understand and re-evaluate their own arguments about the impact of research.

This piece is based on an article written for the Dahrendorf Forum at LSE IDEAS.

Reflections on Language and Complexity

nexus

Blog by Anne Liddon, Scientific Communications Manager, Newcastle University

When I turned up at the CECAN Evaluation and Complexity workshop this week it was my first day back at work after a holiday in Crete, an experience that I thought might have put me in the right frame of mind.   Being the non-scientist in a roomful of scientists often seems like being in a foreign country where I only speak a few words of the language.  Sometimes it also feels as though I’m wading through treacle with a paper bag over my head, because I can’t see what’s going on, I keep getting stuck and I don’t know which way to go, then I bump into people I don’t recognise.  Finally I find out who they are, (sometimes we have been emailing each other for months) and they feel like old friends after all. 

Should Academics be Expected to Change Policy? Six Reasons Why it is Unrealistic for Research to Drive Policy Change.

Should academics drive policy change

UK social scientists feel a growing pressure to achieve policy change. In reality, this process is more complex than it sounds. James Lloyd looks at six reasons that limit the impact research can have on policy change. None of this should suggest that academic researchers shouldn’t seek to influence policymaking. But more consideration is needed on how best academic evidence can leverage the real-world nature of policymaking.

There has been understandable relief at indications from the government that academic researchers will be exempt from anti-advocacy clauses in research grant contracts. The possibility that academics with publicly funded research grants would not be able to press the government for policy change was clearly unacceptable and anti-democratic.

The Science of Using Research...

the science of using research

Governments all over the world invest large sums of public money into producing knowledge that helps them understand their countries’ complex socioeconomic issues. This knowledge, in the form of research, can be used to formulate potential solutions through public policies and programmes.

But it’s not enough just to produce research. It must also be considered and drawn from when policies are being created. However, a range of barriers might prevent policymakers from accessing and using evidence in their work. To understand the use of evidence, then, it’s important to understand the policymaker. Who is she? What are her incentives and biases? What is her professional and institutional context?

Blog article by Lawrence Langer and Ruth Stewart

Clearing The Fog

Complex Policy Evaluation

Development actors facing pressure to provide more rigorous assessments of their impact on policy and practice need new methods to deliver them.

There is now a broad consensus that the traditional counterfactual analysis leading to the assessment of the net effect of an intervention is incapable of capturing the complexity of factors at play in any particular policy change.

We suggest that evaluations focus instead on establishing whether a clearly-defined process of change has taken place, and improve the validity and credibility of qualitative impact statements.

IIED research in Uganda shows that the methods of process tracing and Bayesian updating facilitate a dialogue between theory and evidence that allows us to assess our degree of confidence in ‘contribution claims’ in a transparent and replicable way.

Full article from CECAN's Barbara Befani

Global Challenges Require Cross-Cutting Solutions

Complexity in Policy Evaluation

New research led by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research suggests that current UK policies on water, energy and food are too fragmented to effectively tackle global challenges. Issues such as climate change, resource constraints and the increasing population cut across several sectors and need similarly cross-sectoral policies. Future research must meet this challenge by focusing on the nexus between sectors, scales and timeframes.

To ensure resilience to complex global challenges, it is necessary to evaluate whether policies and underlying research are working effectively across a range of sectors. It is also important to analyse how existing policies affect the water-energy-food nexus at different scales (local, national, global) and times (short- and long-term). Our new research does exactly that, exploring how the policies could better function across the water, energy and food-related sectors of the economy.

Tools, Tools Everywhere and not a Hammer in Sight!

Complexity in Policy Evaluation

By Pete Barbrook-Johnson (né Johnson)

Members of the Sociology department, alongside colleagues from across the University of Surrey, have been working on the ERIE project for the past six years. One of the main outputs of the project is the development of a suite of software tools designed to help anyone and everyone make decisions and think strategically. The tools have been designed with government, industry and charity sector activities in mind, but they can be applied to a very wide range of topics, from managing your health and exercise, to understanding how we might better collaborate with colleagues across the University, and even bringing together students to share and build knowledge.

Have a look, get involved…